Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 149.958389 174.705551 203.353676 239.228784 283.315348 336.196229 405.142119
2025-11-16 115.214620 144.495466 181.731424 233.416296 304.691706 401.665771 547.446248
2025-11-23 94.783365 125.091353 166.268629 227.874985 320.568682 459.849518 695.437874
2025-11-30 86.837688 119.836121 167.378218 243.541873 367.926342 573.817737 966.568315
2025-12-07 77.739201 111.031501 161.240879 246.187077 394.550115 661.092659 1226.482002
2025-12-14 71.225403 104.866467 157.715771 251.681837 426.399308 765.947817 1566.690432
2025-12-21 64.793606 97.823885 151.510922 251.076563 446.525246 853.876297 1913.331053
2025-12-28 62.343089 96.765735 154.873169 267.894263 504.085459 1038.908302 2608.595279
2026-01-04 59.522835 94.664812 156.011000 280.571304 556.335411 1231.865954 3466.927903
2026-01-11 56.624712 92.035642 155.747531 290.295483 604.636260 1434.966912 4532.467253
2026-01-18 53.467256 88.560171 153.389955 295.151191 642.825921 1627.634907 5753.405107
2026-01-25 50.149293 84.424793 149.208848 295.259358 669.284646 1798.388070 7079.946662
2026-02-01 46.371977 79.187999 142.478920 289.104221 679.607153 1930.046162 8434.190576
2026-02-08 42.999549 74.410011 136.144184 282.887572 688.631185 2064.865569 10037.540361
2026-02-15 39.954112 69.974025 129.994563 276.064254 694.236865 2192.049099 11838.702176
2026-02-22 39.470293 70.510022 134.361583 296.031007 787.213983 2723.115744 17895.255782
2026-03-01 37.684740 68.252289 132.394843 299.411511 829.029555 3069.805722 23573.888808
2026-03-08 36.311796 66.707444 131.820818 306.425423 885.979741 3536.098799 32569.345478
2026-03-15 34.524296 64.138026 128.622375 305.652820 915.433862 3889.845294 42087.589766
2026-03-22 34.264209 64.775565 132.938892 327.169690 1037.355979 4893.953288 70751.778876
2026-03-29 33.652053 64.590619 135.274698 343.444330 1146.799894 5971.091767 116626.197506
2026-04-05 32.844917 63.899815 136.289681 355.959364 1247.029255 7138.471981 191834.668063
2026-04-12 31.765515 62.503963 135.378435 362.218606 1322.897652 8244.068560 303766.908460